Make it Work for You

As I've mentioned before, it's very hard to get a leg up on the sports books by creating your own numbers. The good news, however, is that while it's exceptionally hard to beat sports by handicapping, it's perhaps the easiest online gambling venture from which to extract sizeable returns through bonus hunting. As a rule, most reputable sportsbooks offer a 10% sign up bonus on your first deposit, and require you to 'wager through' the deposit and the bonus three times before you make a withdrawal. With terms like these, extracting the bonus money with minimal risk to your bankroll is as easy as falling off a log. Here's how you do it:

1) Look for where the odds on a game are expressed as a 'money line'.

The following passage only applies to those events where a 'money line' is posted, as opposed to a point spread. When you see a money line you'll find that there is a negative number posted after the favorite, and a positive number posted after the underdog. The negative number indicates how much you must wager in order to win $100 betting on the fave. The positive number indicates how much you will win if you bet $100 on the dog. Thus, for a Yankees/Devil Rays match up, you might see something like: Yankees -270, Devil Rays +220. A Yankee bettor who wishes to win $100 must bet $270, and a Devil Rays bettor who wishes to win $220 must bet $100. (Note: You don't have to bet these amounts. For example, if someone wanted to bet $10 on the Yankees they could do so. The payout amount would be proportionately the same as if they'd bet $270.)

2) Establish a 'true line' for each game.

What you're basically doing here is trying to determine what the actual chances are of one team beating another. Although you won't be able to come up with an exact number, there are ways which, for our purposes here, you can get a reasonable estimate. For instance, say the New York Rangers and the Boston Bruins are playing tonight, and the line at the first book you see says ' Boston -140, New York +120'. What this means is that someone who chooses to bet on Boston must put up $140 to win $100, and someone who wishes to bet on New York must put up $100 to win $120. Obviously, Boston is the favorite, since a $140 bet only wins $100, while a $100 on New York wins $120. Next, take a look at a few other books (I recommend perhaps six or eight), and see what kind of line they have on this game. More nights than not, you'll probably see something like this:

Book 'A': Bos. -140, NY +120

Book 'B': Bos. -135, NY +115

Book 'C': Bos: -135, NY +115

Book 'D': Bos: -142, NY +122

Book 'E': Bos: -131, NY +111

Book 'F': Bos: -145, NY +125

Book 'G': Bos: -140, NY +120

Now, take all the odds for Boston winning, add them together, and divide the sum by the total number of sportsbooks whose lines you've included (in short, find the average). In this case, there are 7 books. So, you divide -968 by 7, which gives you a total of -138. Thus, the 'true odds' for Boston winning are -138.

Now go through the same process for New York . You should come up with +118. After you've done this take Boston 's odds of winning, multiply New York 's number by -1, and add New Yorks new, negative number to Boston 's number. Then divide the sum by two. This gives you -128.

What this means is that Boston 's true chances of winning are probably around -128, which means New York 's chances are likely around +128. Now understand that these numbers are just another way of expressing a percentage. When I say that a team is -128 tonight, for example, what I'm really saying is that they have a 56% chance of winning. How do I get this? Simple. I take the amount I have to bet on a team to win 100 (in the case of Boston it's 128) and add that number to the amount I'll win if Boston wins. This gives me a sum of 228-128 that I have to put up of my own money, added to the 100 that I stand to win. So, if I put up 128 on this Boston , and they win, I stand to win 100, which means I've 'turned' 128 into 228. Next, divide this number into the amount I will lose if my team loses. In this case, I'll lose 128. So, you divide 228 into 128, which gives you 56%.. Thus, I need to 'turn' my 128 into 228 56% of the time to break even on this wager.

The math of calculating New York 's chances of winning are the same. I put up 100, and if I win I get 228 returned to me. How often to I need to turn this 100 into 228 in order to break even? Take the 100 I've wagered, and divide it by the amount I stand to have returned-just like you'd do with Boston . As you've probably already guessed, 100/228 equals 44%.

Now we've determined that Boston has a 56% of winning, and New York has a 44% chance. Next, take the best line you can find for Boston (when looking to wager on a favorite, you always want to bet at the book that has the lowest negative number, since the smaller the amount you have to lay the less often you're team has to win in order for you to cash your ticket. Hence, if you could take Boston at either -145 or -135 you'd take the -135 every time, since a bet at -145 has to win 59% of the time to break even, while a bet at -135 only has to win 57% of the time). Once you've found that number, look for the best odds on NY (with the underdog you want to bet at the book with the highest positive number, since the greater the number the more money you get back when they win). In this case, the best odds on Boston are -131, and the best odds on NY are +125.

Now you want to figure how much you'll lose, on average, by placing this two wager combination. We've established that Boston stands to win 56% of the time. Thus, if you could make this wager over and over, 56% of the time you would break even, since you will win 100 when Boston wins, but lose the 100 you bet on NY. The other 44% of the time you'll lose the 131 you bet on Boston , but win 125 for betting on NY. Hence, you stand to lose six dollars 44% of the time, and break even 56% of the time.

Now, let's say you can make this wager combination 100 times; that is, you can bet Boston at these odds 100 times, and NY 100 times. This gives you $13,100 of action on Boston , and $10,000 of action on NY. 56% of the time you break even. 44% of the time you lose six bucks. Thus, after 100 of these wager combinations you expect to lose $264 (you get this by multiplying six, which is the number of dollars you stand to lose, by 44, which is the percentage of the time you'll lose that six bucks). You'll have given the books $23,100 worth of action, and you'll have lost $264. 264 is 1.1% of 23,100, which means you stand to lose 1.1%, on average, of the total amount wagered every time you make this wager combination.

Now this is obviously a bet we can live with. If you're given a bonus of 10%, and are forced to wager through the bonus amount plus the buy in amount three times before making a withdrawal, you'll have to give the book $3,300 worth of action before you take any money out (assuming you bought in for $1,000). If you could make this wager on Boston and New York over and over you'd stand to lose about $36, which means you'd profit $64, on the average, by the time you're money was available for withdrawal. In order to take as much advantage of your bonus as possible you'll probably want to look for wagering combinations that will yield an average loss of 1% or less.


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