Scalps and Middles
SCALPS
A Scalp is a combination of two sports wagers which, if made simultaneously, are guaranteed to show a profit long-term. Typically, scalps occur when two books offer different odds on a money line wager for the same game. Example: Sportsbook 'A' has the Braves/ Mets game listed at -132 for the Braves, and +122 for the Mets. Sportbook 'B' has the same game listed at -146 for the Braves, and +136 for the Mets. In a case like this the player is guaranteed to show a long term profit by betting 136 dollars on the Braves at -132, and 100 dollars on the Mets at +136. If the Braves win, the player loses the 100 he bet on the Mets, but wins 100 dollars for his bet on the Braves; a break even event. If, however, the Mets win, the player will win 136 dollars for his Mets bet, and lose only 132 dollars on his Braves bet, for a profit of 4 dollars. Since you can roughly expect the Mets to win this game 43% of the time*, this bet combination is worth (.43*4), or $1.72.
The great thing about scalps is that they're very easy to identify. Anytime you see a game where the odds offered on the dog at one book exceed the odds on the favorite at another book, you have a scalping opportunity. Also, you can literally 'back up the truck' when you identify one, since you have absolutely no chance of losing. Since all winning gamblers should determine the size of their bets based on both the expected payoff and according risk of ruin that any bet offers, a player can literally put their entire bankroll in play on a scalp bet since he has no chance of losing. Although money line scalps can be found in the NBA and NFL from time to time, they're most prevalent in MLB (and to a lesser extent the NHL ). If you have accounts set up at a number of different books, and you have the opportunity to scalp a game, you should typically take that scalp for as much money as you can afford (the exception to this rule occurs when you expect to make a later wager that has a higher expectation than the scalped game, and this later game will start before the scalped game ends).
Scalps rarely offer a huge payoff, as most books usually keep their lines close to those of their competition. But they do pop up from time to time, and when they do you shouldn't be scared to take advantage of them. It's 'free' money, after all, and while you won't get rich betting this way, you can over time add substantially to your bankroll by keeping your eye out for these kinds of propositions, since you can bet so much money on each event.
* In order to figure how often the dog is expected to win, take the odds offered by the first book, turn the negative number (the odds on the favorite) into a positive number, then add that number to the odds on the dog. Then divide that number by two. Do the same for the other sportsbook. Then take these two sums and divide by two. In our case above, you would add 132 to 122, giving you 254. Dividing 254 by 2 gives you 127. Then we'd take 146+136, which equals 282, and divide that by two, giving us 141. 127+141= 268, which divided by two equals 134. Thus, the 'true odds' for the game would be expressed as Braves -134, and Mets +134. To figure the Mets chances of winning, take 100 and divide that by (134+100). 100/234 equals 42.7% ,or rounded to 43%.
MIDDLES
Betting middles is similar to betting scalps, although the wagers are somewhat different. With a middle you're again betting both sides of a proposition, although you're betting point spreads as opposed to money lines. To identify a middle, simply look for a point spread proposition where two books have set different lines. Example: Sportsbook 'A' has the Lakers/Mavericks game at Lakers -8 -110, while Sportsbook 'B' has the same game at Lakers minus 9 -110. By betting the Lakers -8 and the Mavs +9, you will lose the Lakers bet if the Mavs either win outright or lose by less than 8, or you will lose the Mavs bet if the Lakers win by 10 or more. So, in most cases you'll lose either one bet or the other. If, however, the Lakers win by exactly 8 or 9, you'll win one bet and tie the other. In the NBA, the chances of the favorite winning by the exact margin as the point spread is about 3.2%. Hence, you will lose either one bet or the other 93.6% of the time, and win one and push the other 6.4% of the time. Is this middle profitable? Well, you figure to lose ten dollars 93.6% of the time, which means over a hundred trials you'll lose 936 dollars. The other 6.4% of the time you'll win one hundred and lose nothing, for an expected gain (again, over 100 trials) of $640. -936+640= -276; this indicates that this middle is not profitable. Therefore, you can conclude that in the NBA 1 point middles are not money-makers.
The easy way to determine whether a middle is profitable is as follows: whenever you're betting against a standard 11-10 proposition (expressed as -110), you're working against a 4.54% house edge. Therefore you need to find a wagering combination that will yield an expected profit greater than 4.54%. In the above example the expected return was only 3.2%, which isn't enough (since we only win 1 bet, and push the other, if the game ends on 8, we can only assign half of the 3.2% to our return. The same rules apply if the game ends on 9). If, however, we had found a book with the Mavs listed as 10 point dogs, we would have had a middle worth betting since our expected return would have been 6.4%. (we get half of the 8, which is 1.6%, all of the 9,which is 3.2%, and half of the 10, which is another 1.6%).
It's difficult to find profitable middles in the NBA, since you usually need a 1 ½ differential between point spreads to make them break-even, and 2 points to make them profitable. But you can, however, find profitable middles in the NFL, especially in games lined around 3. On average, an NFL favorite will win by exactly 3 points about 10% of the time. Thus, if you're lucky enough to find a book that has an NFL game lined at -2.5, and another book with the same game lined at -3.5, you can bet the fave at -2.5, the dog at +3.5, and smile all the way to the bank, knowing that this bet combination will yield about a 5% profit long-term.
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