Winning Sports Bet | Professional Sports Betting Tips

Make it Work for You

As I've mentioned before, it's very hard to get a leg up on the sports books by creating your own numbers. The good news, however, is that while it's exceptionally hard to beat sports by handicapping, it's perhaps the easiest online gambling venture from which to extract sizeable returns through bonus hunting. As a rule, most reputable sportsbooks offer a 10% sign up bonus on your first deposit, and require you to 'wager through' the deposit and the bonus three times before you make a withdrawal. With terms like these, extracting the bonus money with minimal risk to your bankroll is as easy as falling off a log. Here's how you do it:

1) Look for where the odds on a game are expressed as a 'money line'.

The following passage only applies to those events where a 'money line' is posted, as opposed to a point spread. When you see a money line you'll find that there is a negative number posted after the favorite, and a positive number posted after the underdog. The negative number indicates how much you must wager in order to win $100 betting on the fave. The positive number indicates how much you will win if you bet $100 on the dog. Thus, for a Yankees/Devil Rays match up, you might see something like: Yankees -270, Devil Rays +220. A Yankee bettor who wishes to win $100 must bet $270, and a Devil Rays bettor who wishes to win $220 must bet $100. (Note: You don't have to bet these amounts. For example, if someone wanted to bet $10 on the Yankees they could do so. The payout amount would be proportionately the same as if they'd bet $270.)

2) Establish a 'true line' for each game.

What you're basically doing here is trying to determine what the actual chances are of one team beating another. Although you won't be able to come up with an exact number, there are ways which, for our purposes here, you can get a reasonable estimate. For instance, say the New York Rangers and the Boston Bruins are playing tonight, and the line at the first book you see says ' Boston -140, New York +120'. What this means is that someone who chooses to bet on Boston must put up $140 to win $100, and someone who wishes to bet on New York must put up $100 to win $120. Obviously, Boston is the favorite, since a $140 bet only wins $100, while a $100 on New York wins $120. Next, take a look at a few other books (I recommend perhaps six or eight), and see what kind of line they have on this game. More nights than not, you'll probably see something like this:

Book 'A': Bos. -140, NY +120

Book 'B': Bos. -135, NY +115

Book 'C': Bos: -135, NY +115

Book 'D': Bos: -142, NY +122

Book 'E': Bos: -131, NY +111

Book 'F': Bos: -145, NY +125

Book 'G': Bos: -140, NY +120

Now, take all the odds for Boston winning, add them together, and divide the sum by the total number of sportsbooks whose lines you've included (in short, find the average). In this case, there are 7 books. So, you divide -968 by 7, which gives you a total of -138. Thus, the 'true odds' for Boston winning are -138.

Now go through the same process for New York . You should come up with +118. After you've done this take Boston 's odds of winning, multiply New York 's number by -1, and add New Yorks new, negative number to Boston 's number. Then divide the sum by two. This gives you -128.

What this means is that Boston 's true chances of winning are probably around -128, which means New York 's chances are likely around +128. Now understand that these numbers are just another way of expressing a percentage. When I say that a team is -128 tonight, for example, what I'm really saying is that they have a 56% chance of winning. How do I get this? Simple. I take the amount I have to bet on a team to win 100 (in the case of Boston it's 128) and add that number to the amount I'll win if Boston wins. This gives me a sum of 228-128 that I have to put up of my own money, added to the 100 that I stand to win. So, if I put up 128 on this Boston , and they win, I stand to win 100, which means I've 'turned' 128 into 228. Next, divide this number into the amount I will lose if my team loses. In this case, I'll lose 128. So, you divide 228 into 128, which gives you 56%.. Thus, I need to 'turn' my 128 into 228 56% of the time to break even on this wager.

The math of calculating New York 's chances of winning are the same. I put up 100, and if I win I get 228 returned to me. How often to I need to turn this 100 into 228 in order to break even? Take the 100 I've wagered, and divide it by the amount I stand to have returned-just like you'd do with Boston . As you've probably already guessed, 100/228 equals 44%.

Now we've determined that Boston has a 56% of winning, and New York has a 44% chance. Next, take the best line you can find for Boston (when looking to wager on a favorite, you always want to bet at the book that has the lowest negative number, since the smaller the amount you have to lay the less often you're team has to win in order for you to cash your ticket. Hence, if you could take Boston at either -145 or -135 you'd take the -135 every time, since a bet at -145 has to win 59% of the time to break even, while a bet at -135 only has to win 57% of the time). Once you've found that number, look for the best odds on NY (with the underdog you want to bet at the book with the highest positive number, since the greater the number the more money you get back when they win). In this case, the best odds on Boston are -131, and the best odds on NY are +125.

Now you want to figure how much you'll lose, on average, by placing this two wager combination. We've established that Boston stands to win 56% of the time. Thus, if you could make this wager over and over, 56% of the time you would break even, since you will win 100 when Boston wins, but lose the 100 you bet on NY. The other 44% of the time you'll lose the 131 you bet on Boston , but win 125 for betting on NY. Hence, you stand to lose six dollars 44% of the time, and break even 56% of the time.

Now, let's say you can make this wager combination 100 times; that is, you can bet Boston at these odds 100 times, and NY 100 times. This gives you $13,100 of action on Boston , and $10,000 of action on NY. 56% of the time you break even. 44% of the time you lose six bucks. Thus, after 100 of these wager combinations you expect to lose $264 (you get this by multiplying six, which is the number of dollars you stand to lose, by 44, which is the percentage of the time you'll lose that six bucks). You'll have given the books $23,100 worth of action, and you'll have lost $264. 264 is 1.1% of 23,100, which means you stand to lose 1.1%, on average, of the total amount wagered every time you make this wager combination.

Now this is obviously a bet we can live with. If you're given a bonus of 10%, and are forced to wager through the bonus amount plus the buy in amount three times before making a withdrawal, you'll have to give the book $3,300 worth of action before you take any money out (assuming you bought in for $1,000). If you could make this wager on Boston and New York over and over you'd stand to lose about $36, which means you'd profit $64, on the average, by the time you're money was available for withdrawal. In order to take as much advantage of your bonus as possible you'll probably want to look for wagering combinations that will yield an average loss of 1% or less.

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In this essay we'll explore how one can make profitable sports bets without doing a lick of handicapping. The secret lies in learning how to properly 'bet blind', which is a way of identifying a profitable opportunity simply by assessing the point spread.

Let's start with an example. Let's say the Lakers and Bucks are playing tonight in Milwaukee , and every shop has the game lined somewhere between Bucks -1 and Bucks -2. Further, let's say that after seeing these lines I offer you the opportunity to take L.A. +6; i.e., I'm willing to give you four more points on L.A. than you could find anywhere else. Would you take L.A on these terms?

Of course you would! In fact, you probably wouldn't give it a second thought. Even if you hadn't handicapped the game you'd figure that there's no way I could know something about the game that all these sports books didn't know. You'd probably assume-correctly, might I add-that a line like Mil -1.5 'more or less' offers a 50/50 chance of each team covering (give or take a few percentage points), which means the additional four points I would be offering you would tip the scales greatly in your favor. The average point in the NBA happens to worth about 3.2%, which means that if L.A had about a 50/50 chance of covering the +1.5, they'd have about a 53% chance of covering +2.5 (since Milwaukee will win by exactly 2 points about 3% of the time). By extension, L.A would have about a 63-64% of covering +6. This would give you a whopping edge on a bet on L.A.

Maybe you've had the opportunity to make a bet like this with a buddy, or a friend at work. You know someone who's a huge fan of one team, and they're willing to give you three or four more points than you could find at any shop. They figure it's a 'friendly wager', so they're willing to take the worst of it. If you're like me, you've probably jumped on these chances as soon as they were presented. True, the money usually isn't big, but you almost have to take the bet out of principle.

Although most people don't know this, these kinds of opportunities pop up on online sports books every day. All you have to do is be there when the line moves, and jump on it before someone else does. Let's say that almost every book on the net has an NBA game at -2, except for one book that has it at -3. Assuming the -2 is pretty much a 50/50 bet, taking the +3 will give you a bet that has a 53% chance of covering. Since you only need to hit about 52.5% to break even (assuming you're laying 11 to win 10, or in other words taking the bet at -110), blindly betting the dog here will give you a small edge.

Now I know what you're next question is going to be: 'How do you know that the -2 gives each team about a 50/50 chance of covering?' Well the truth is, you don't. Sometimes the dog might have a 55% chance of covering this line, and sometimes the fave will. But in the long run this will 'even out', meaning that sometimes when you take the +3 you'll only have a bet that has a 49% of covering (assuming there will be times when the dog is only favored to cover the -2 about 46% of the time), and sometimes that same dog will have a 57-59% chance of covering the -3 (again, assuming there are occasions where the dog would have covered the -2 54-56% of the time). You don't know where this particular bet may fall on the continuum, but you do know that it will 'all even out' in the long run. And the long run, my friends, is what advantage gambling is all about.

In order to bet blind profitably there are a couple things you should do. Following, we'll go over precisely what you need to learn in order to get started.

1) Find 'Positive Subsets'

What we mean by this is identifying situations in which one team has either a) historically covered the spread more than 50% of the time, or b) in the case of a money line, has historically been a break-even or better bet. A classic example of this is home dogs in the NFL getting 4 points or more. In the past, teams in this situation have covered the closing line around somewhere between 51-52% of the time. Since you need to cover 52.5% of the time to break even, you can't expect to win by blindly betting home dogs against the widely available line. If, however, you can get an extra point or two (especially when that point is on or off the 3, or the 7), you're looking at a bet that you can expect to make you money long-term. The same is true for home dogs in the NHL that are priced at +180 or more; looking back, if you'd taken every heavy home underdog in the NHL you'd have broke even (or perhaps lost a little). Thus, if the widely available line on a team is +190, and you find a shop offering the same team at +215, you have a bet that should offer an advantage. To identify positive subsets you need to research past results, and look at games where either the line, or a scheduling dynamic, has given one team an edge against the other. You don't want to get too exotic, (i.e., teams coming off 2 division games where they've lost by 20+ points are 19-6 against the spread when playing an inter-conference game the next week, or something like that), since you won't have a sample size large enough to determine whether or not the edge is real. Also, make sure that the plays you're examining 'make sense'. The fact that teams wearing blue jerseys are 21-4 over the past 10 years against teams with red jerseys, for example, is worthless. Since there's no reason for this to have happened, a subset like this has no predictive value.

By finding positive subsets you'll improve you're winning percentage whenever you find a 'rogue line'. Let's say, for example, that you do your homework and discover that the dog in the NBA covered about 51% of the time over the past 20 years. This means that whenever you can get an extra point on the dog, you'll be looking to win around 54% of the time. Conversely, betting on the fave, even when you get 'line help', will only win about 51% of the time. Thus, you'd know to stay away from the favorite whenever you're only getting one point.

2) Learn what a 'point is worth'

In order to 'bet blind' effectively, you need to be able to examine just what your edge is. This means learning what each point is 'worth' in terms of percentage points (when betting on sports that offer a point spread), or learning what the difference in price on a money line means to you. For example, as we mentioned one point in the NBA is worth about 3.2%. If both teams have a 50/50 chance, on average, of covering a given line, then getting an extra point on one team over another means your bet (again, on average) will cover around at around a 53% clip. The NFL is trickier, since the way the game is scored means that some certain winning margins are more common than others; however, with a little homework you can figure out what any given point is worth in the NFL (if you don't want to do the work here, Stanford Wong reveals just how often any given NFL game can expect to fall right on the line in his book 'Sharp Sports Betting'. If you haven't picked this book up yet, then now would be a great time to do so).

For money lines, the calculation is simpler. Say you're looking at betting an NHL home dog that's listed at +240 at one shop, and around +215 everywhere else. To figure out you edge here, you first need to know what your expected return is on the +215. Like I said before, this bet has historically been about break-even against the widely available line, which means the dog here will win about 31.7% of the time.(If the dog wins 31.7% of the time here, then the bet will break-even over the long run. You figure this by taking the amount you'd wager (for simplicity's sake we'll say $100), and dividing that by the amount you will have returned to you if your bet wins. Since you'll have $315 returned to you, you divide 100/315, which gives you .317, or 31.7 %.). To figure out what your expected profit is on taking the team at +240, you do the following: The bet will win 31.7% of the time, which is how often you'll 'cash' your ticket. When your bet wins, you'll have $340 returned to you-your $100 stake, plus your $240 in winnings. Thus, you'll 'turn' $100 into $340 31.7% of the time. If you multiply 340 by .317, you get 107.78, which means that on average you can expect to turn that $100 into $107.78; a nice return of 7.78% on your $100 bet.

But what about favorites on the money line? The formula is the same. Say you have a team where the true line is around -170, yet you can get them for -155. As we've said before, to convert a money line into a percentage you divide the amount of the original bet by the total amount you'll have returned to you if you win. 170 divided by 270 is 62.9%, which means a game where the true line is -170 will see the favorite winning 62.9% of the time. So, you'll turn your $155 into $255 at a 62.9% clip. Multiplying 255 by .629, we find that you can expect, on average, to turn your $155 into $160.40. Your going to profit $5.40 on average, and 5.4 divided by 155 is .0348, or a 3.48% return on your money.

BEWARE THE SHARP BOOK

This next point is matter of some debate, so I'm simply going to throw it out there as something for you to consider. Some sharp players insist that there are certain books which shade their line away from the widely available line when they think they can get lopsided action on the wrong side. For example, let's say the Panthers are playing the Falcons, and the Panthers are around -4 at most books. If a book thinks that the 'true line' on the game should be around -5.5, they might hang a line like Panthers -4.5-even if everyone else has hung Panthers -4-- in hopes of getting more Falcons money than their competitors. In other words, the book is 'taking a stand' on the game. They're not looking to 'split the action' on the game and walk away with the juice; instead, they're looking to induce wrong side action from their clients. Of course, this means that the book is 'exposed' on the game, since if all goes right they'll have more money come in on one side than another. But they'll take this risk if they think it will make them more money.

In order to hang a 'rogue line', a book has to feel fairly confident in their numbers, since if they've done a poor job of handicapping the game they can lose their shirt. And, as you may have guessed, some books have a reputation for doing a better job of handicapping then others. As of the time of this writing, the book that probably has the strongest reputation for hanging opinionated lines is Pinnacle ( www.pinbet.com ). Other books with this reputation are Hollywood and CRIS (although they're generally not considered 'as sharp' as Pinnacle). Whenever Pinnacle has hung a 'rogue line', sharp bettors take a long look at the game before betting it blind, since it's likely that Pinnacle wants the action on the side they're thinking of betting. For instance, let's say the Brewers and Marlins are playing, and the Brewers are +180 at most shops. If Pinnacle has the Brewers at +200, sharps will think twice about taking the +200, since it looks like Pinnacle is inviting Brewers action. If, however, some other 'square' shop (i.e., one that does not have a reputation for hanging opinionated numbers) has the +200, they might jump all over it. The logic behind this thinking is that Pinnacle has done a solid job of handicapping the game, and knows what the true line ought to be. Thus, they're willing to bring their line closer to the true line than other shops in order to get action on the side that offers the least value.

An example of this actually occurred this last fall. Bowling Green was playing Miami Oh.on a Thursday night and Miami was a 7 point favorite at almost every shop. True, Miami was a home, but BG had become something of a 'media darling', and was highly ranked in the national polls. Since square bettors love to bet on highly ranked teams, it's probably fair to assume that most books were heavy on BG money. So, while Pinnacle could expect plenty of BG money by simply hanging a line of -7 on Miami , they instead chose to put Miami as a -7.5 favorite. As football bettors know, moving from 7 to 7.5 is a huge jump, since seeing a 7 point favorite win by exactly 7 is not a rare thing. Thus, it looked like Pinnacle was begging for more BG money, even though they could have gotten their fair share by hanging the same line as everyone else. When sharp bettors saw this they 'knew' that Miami was the 'right side', since Pinnacle wouldn't invite so much BG money if they weren't.

What does this mean to you? Simply put, if a sharp book is offering the best price on a game, you might want to think twice before making the bet. I haven't done enough research to substantiate the 'sharp book' theory, so I won't speak one way or another on its validity. But there are plenty of savvy bettors who insist that this phenomenon is real, so in the interest of completion we wanted to share this theory with you.

Well, folks, here you have it-a way you can make money betting sports without having to crunch a million numbers in a spread sheet. Find your positive subsets, figure out what your edge is, and stay away from the game if a sharp book appears to want your action. God willing, we'll see each other at the cashier's cage!

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SCALPS

A Scalp is a combination of two sports wagers which, if made simultaneously, are guaranteed to show a profit long-term. Typically, scalps occur when two books offer different odds on a money line wager for the same game. Example: Sportsbook 'A' has the Braves/ Mets game listed at -132 for the Braves, and +122 for the Mets. Sportbook 'B' has the same game listed at -146 for the Braves, and +136 for the Mets. In a case like this the player is guaranteed to show a long term profit by betting 136 dollars on the Braves at -132, and 100 dollars on the Mets at +136. If the Braves win, the player loses the 100 he bet on the Mets, but wins 100 dollars for his bet on the Braves; a break even event. If, however, the Mets win, the player will win 136 dollars for his Mets bet, and lose only 132 dollars on his Braves bet, for a profit of 4 dollars. Since you can roughly expect the Mets to win this game 43% of the time*, this bet combination is worth (.43*4), or $1.72.

The great thing about scalps is that they're very easy to identify. Anytime you see a game where the odds offered on the dog at one book exceed the odds on the favorite at another book, you have a scalping opportunity. Also, you can literally 'back up the truck' when you identify one, since you have absolutely no chance of losing. Since all winning gamblers should determine the size of their bets based on both the expected payoff and according risk of ruin that any bet offers, a player can literally put their entire bankroll in play on a scalp bet since he has no chance of losing. Although money line scalps can be found in the NBA and NFL from time to time, they're most prevalent in MLB (and to a lesser extent the NHL ). If you have accounts set up at a number of different books, and you have the opportunity to scalp a game, you should typically take that scalp for as much money as you can afford (the exception to this rule occurs when you expect to make a later wager that has a higher expectation than the scalped game, and this later game will start before the scalped game ends).

Scalps rarely offer a huge payoff, as most books usually keep their lines close to those of their competition. But they do pop up from time to time, and when they do you shouldn't be scared to take advantage of them. It's 'free' money, after all, and while you won't get rich betting this way, you can over time add substantially to your bankroll by keeping your eye out for these kinds of propositions, since you can bet so much money on each event.

* In order to figure how often the dog is expected to win, take the odds offered by the first book, turn the negative number (the odds on the favorite) into a positive number, then add that number to the odds on the dog. Then divide that number by two. Do the same for the other sportsbook. Then take these two sums and divide by two. In our case above, you would add 132 to 122, giving you 254. Dividing 254 by 2 gives you 127. Then we'd take 146+136, which equals 282, and divide that by two, giving us 141. 127+141= 268, which divided by two equals 134. Thus, the 'true odds' for the game would be expressed as Braves -134, and Mets +134. To figure the Mets chances of winning, take 100 and divide that by (134+100). 100/234 equals 42.7% ,or rounded to 43%.

MIDDLES

Betting middles is similar to betting scalps, although the wagers are somewhat different. With a middle you're again betting both sides of a proposition, although you're betting point spreads as opposed to money lines. To identify a middle, simply look for a point spread proposition where two books have set different lines. Example: Sportsbook 'A' has the Lakers/Mavericks game at Lakers -8 -110, while Sportsbook 'B' has the same game at Lakers minus 9 -110. By betting the Lakers -8 and the Mavs +9, you will lose the Lakers bet if the Mavs either win outright or lose by less than 8, or you will lose the Mavs bet if the Lakers win by 10 or more. So, in most cases you'll lose either one bet or the other. If, however, the Lakers win by exactly 8 or 9, you'll win one bet and tie the other. In the NBA, the chances of the favorite winning by the exact margin as the point spread is about 3.2%. Hence, you will lose either one bet or the other 93.6% of the time, and win one and push the other 6.4% of the time. Is this middle profitable? Well, you figure to lose ten dollars 93.6% of the time, which means over a hundred trials you'll lose 936 dollars. The other 6.4% of the time you'll win one hundred and lose nothing, for an expected gain (again, over 100 trials) of $640. -936+640= -276; this indicates that this middle is not profitable. Therefore, you can conclude that in the NBA 1 point middles are not money-makers.

The easy way to determine whether a middle is profitable is as follows: whenever you're betting against a standard 11-10 proposition (expressed as -110), you're working against a 4.54% house edge. Therefore you need to find a wagering combination that will yield an expected profit greater than 4.54%. In the above example the expected return was only 3.2%, which isn't enough (since we only win 1 bet, and push the other, if the game ends on 8, we can only assign half of the 3.2% to our return. The same rules apply if the game ends on 9). If, however, we had found a book with the Mavs listed as 10 point dogs, we would have had a middle worth betting since our expected return would have been 6.4%. (we get half of the 8, which is 1.6%, all of the 9,which is 3.2%, and half of the 10, which is another 1.6%).

It's difficult to find profitable middles in the NBA, since you usually need a 1 ½ differential between point spreads to make them break-even, and 2 points to make them profitable. But you can, however, find profitable middles in the NFL, especially in games lined around 3. On average, an NFL favorite will win by exactly 3 points about 10% of the time. Thus, if you're lucky enough to find a book that has an NFL game lined at -2.5, and another book with the same game lined at -3.5, you can bet the fave at -2.5, the dog at +3.5, and smile all the way to the bank, knowing that this bet combination will yield about a 5% profit long-term.

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Getting buried by betting on football has been a long established American tradition; so much so that it has almost become a rite of passage into adulthood. You can go to college, get a job, and find a beautiful wife-but you really haven't come of age until you've really lost your ass betting the foots. For me this came in the fall of '95, a gambling year that began with a series of small losses through September and October, and culminated in two whopping losses in November; one on the Texas-Texas A&M game, and one on the Alabama-Auburn game. When the dust had settled I was stuck for far more money than I could possibly raise, and was forced to install skylights through the winter in order to pay off a man named 'Kool-Aid' who lived in Saginaw.

Does this story sound familiar? For many of you, it probably does. Hopefully, however, we can finally put the years of constant losing behind you, for this year we're going to do what we can to finally get you out of the red when it comes to betting the NFL. Obviously I can't guarantee you a winning season-nobody can. But I can show you how to identify the kinds of bets that professional gamblers make-and don't make-every Sunday.

Before we start, there are a couple things we need to cover. First, understand that beating the NFL--- or any sport, for that matter-is the result of the the accumulation of small edges. There is NO SUCH THING as a handicapper who hits over 60% on his plays. This beast does NOT exist. In the coming months your radio is going to be flooded with ads from an array of idiots promising you 'lock' games and 'can't miss' parlays. Do not, my friends, be fooled. None of these guys are winners-they are just dart throwers who have a knack for marketing. If you want to beat the foots you have to realize that you're going to be making bets that carry a 2-4% return on your money. That's it. Nothing more. Before you make your first bet, promise yourself that you will not, under any circumstances, send money to some clown who promises to have inside information on the Raiders/Dolphins tilt this Monday. Beating the game is hard enough-if you're kicking out money to touts, it's almost impossible.

Second, much of the trick to beating the NFL comes from smart betting, not handicapping. The prevailing belief amongst novice sports bettors is that all successful sports bettors have monstrous data bases, and thousands of spread sheets, through which they process and interpret game stats and other relevant information. True, there are many successful sports bettors who do this-however, it's not a requisite for success. By learning to spot profitable bets, and bet combos, you can show a tidy profit at the end of the year without crunching a single number.

With that out of the way, let's move on the game.

1) Don't bet on road favorites!

This is a huge mistake that most bettors make every year. Simply put, road favorites have only performed at about a 48-49% clip in the past. It's a horrible subset, and you've got to be really, really sharp in order to find profitable bets in a subset that performs this poorly.

Most people get sucked in to betting road favorites at least a few times each week. What usually happens is this: a 'public' team, like the Patriots, is playing a mediocre opponent the following week. Also, that mediocre team has recently lost their starting quarterback to injury, and the back up is a 22 year old sixth round draft pick. Now the clowns at ESPN dedicate the entire next week to informing us how the Pats defense is going to absolutely destroy this kid, and how the mediocre team has zero chance of covering the spread-much less winning outright.

For some reason our unsophisticated bettor believes that the sportsbooks haven't taken this information into full account. He knows that it's the book's job to factor injuries into the line, but somehow he convinces himself that the book doesn't really understand how devastating this injury is to the mediocre team. After all, Ron Jaworski just predicted a final score of 38-9!! Giddy with anticipation, our hero hops online and gets down on the Pats at -6.

Now maybe this bet wins, and maybe it doesn't. But if there's one thing you can always be sure of, it is this-the book always, and I mean always, knows more about the game than you do. They've got an entire staff that does nothing but evaluate match-ups, and they do it all year long. They have computers. They have experts. They have fat bank accounts. And they didn't get all this stuff by hanging lines which can be destroyed by a guy who gets 90% of his information from Chris Berman, Tom Jackson and the USA Today football supplement. If this game was such a lock, you can be sure that the big betting syndicates would have bombed the books with heavy Pats action from the minute the line was hung-and would have kept bombing them until there was no value left in the line. You don't know more about football than Billy Walters, or the Kosher Kids, and you don't know more than the books. The sooner this sinks in, the faster you can start making money.

The fact is, road favorites are a bad bet. Period. History bears this out, and it's unlikely to change as long as every Tom, Dick and Harry out there keeps making these bets. The linesmaker knows that most ploppies like to bet the favorites, so they shade the lines accordingly in order to get maximum value from the squares.

2) Don't bet parlays!

These bets are some of the book's favorites, since they can offer such crappy odds and still get plenty of action. It's true that a 55% handicapper can actually get a larger return playing two-team parlays with a payoff of 13-5, however, the fact that the variance associated with these bets is so high means they have to bet less money than they would if they just took the two teams straight-up. As a result, they almost never take the parlay.

In short, parlays are for suckers who want a chance at a big payoff with minimum exposure. For that opportunity they're willing to let the book skim off a healthy percentage of the bets expected return. Remember-'friends don't let friends bet parlays!'

3) Learn the value of a point, and how it relates to the moneyline!

If you're going to be a successful bettor you simply have to learn this. In fact, it's so important that we're going to break this down into two sections. First, we'll look at the value of a point, and then we'll look at how it relates to the money line. If you find any of this confusing, read it over and over until you get it. If you still don't get it then email me and I'll clear up any confusion.

What we mean by the value of a point is how often, on average, the game will land on exactly on the point spread-which of course results in a tie. For instance: We know that on average a team favored by one point will win by exactly one point about 2 percent of the time, and we know that a team favored by two points will win by exactly two point also about 2 percent of the time. Further, we know that a team favored by three points will win by exactly three points about 10 percent of the time.

Why is knowing this important? Because it lets us evaluate different bets available on the same game when the point spread is different between two books. Let's say book 'A' has a game lined at -3 -110 and +3 -110, and book 'B' has the same game lined at -3.5 -+100 and +3.5 +-120. Which bet should you take if you're going to bet the dog?

We know that the game will end with the favorite winning by exactly three about 10% of the time. Thus, if we bet the +3 -110 we can expect the favorite to cover 45% of the time, the dog to cover 45% of the time, and the game to land on a push about 10% of the time. Thus, if we bet $110 on the dog we'll lose our bet 45% of the time (for a loss of $4950), win 45% of the time (for a net win of $4500), and push 10% of the time (no action). If we made this bet 100 times, at $110 each time, we'd expect to be down $450 at the end.

Now look at the +3.5 (for simplicities sake we'll assume we're betting 120 to win 100 on this line). Here we still expect to lose 45% of the time, however we've turned all the pushes into wins, since we now win instead of tie when the game lands on exactly three. Thus, we lose $120 45% of the time for a loss of $5400, but we win 55% of the time for a net win of $5500. So, by betting this line as opposed to the straight +3 -110, we have turned our bet from a long term loser into a small winner.

What does this mean to you? It means that if you have the option of taking the +3 -110, or the +3.5 -120, there is no excuse for taking the first bet. If you take the first bet because you 'don't want to open another account somewhere', or because 'the three probably won't matter anyway', then you're just not doing what it takes to win.

Now then, let's look at how this relates to the money line. With almost all games the player has two choices- they can either bet against the point spread, or they can bet on the team they expect to win outright. As a bettor, it is absolutely necessary that you learn to how to compare a point spread to a money line bet, and evaluate which bet offers the better value.

Example; Book 'A' has the favorite at -3.5 +100, while at book 'B' you can bet the favorite on the money line at -160. Which bet is better? Assuming that the favorite will cover the 3.5 about 50% of the time, we know that the favorite can be expected to win this game outright about 64% of the time. How do we know this? Because the point spread 'equalizes' the teams. The favorite is expected to win by exactly one point 2% of the time, and by exactly two points 2% of the time, and by exactly 3 points 10% of the time, and 2+2+10 equals 14. You add that 14 (which is the percentage of the time that point spread will come into play) to 50 (which is the percentage of the time that the favorite will cover, or win by 4 points or more) and you get 64%.

Now look at the moneyline. If you're read our sports betting primer (and if you haven't you can check it out here) you know that the break even point for a money line of -150 is 60%; i.e., the favorite has to win about 60% of the time for a money line bet of -150 to break even. So, if a bet at -3.5 +100 indicates that the team has a 64% chance of winning outright, but you can bet the same team at -150, you'd take the -150 everyday.

Note that for our purposes here we said that the favorite had a 50% chance of covering. This may or may not be the case, depending on the game. Thus, you wouldn't want to jump in and automatically take the -150, since it's possible that all the real value is on the dog, which would make both of these bets (the -3.5 +100, and the -150) unacceptable. What we're trying to do here is show you which bet has the better value; whether either of these bets has any real value would depend on the game.

Here are a couple tips to help you accurately compare a point spread to a money line.

a) If the game is lined at -110 (e.g., -2.5 -110, or -3 -110), add 2.5% to the percentage total. In the example of the -2.5 -110, you would at the chances that the team will win by exactly 1 (two percent) to the chances they'll win by exactly 2 (two percent). After you've done that you add the juice you pay by having to bet 11 to win 10 (2.5 percent). 2+2+2.5= 6.5. Add that to 50 and you get 56.5. When you convert 56.5% to a money line you get -130. So, taking a team at -2.5 -110 is the same as taking the favorite at -130. If you found a money line at -120, for example, the money line would offer better value than the point spread.

b) If the game is lined at -120, add 5% to the percentage total.

c) If the game is lined at +100 (also expressed as EV, for 'even'), add nothing to the percentage total.

d) If the game is lined on a whole number, and not on a half number, then only add in half of the percentage of the number which the line is on. You do this because if the game does land on the number it's a push, not a win. For example, if a game is lined at -3 +100, you would add 2% (the odds of landing on 1) to 2%(the odds of the game landing on 2) and then only add half of the 10% chance that the game lands on three (in this case, 5%). You only 'get' the entire 3 if the line is 3.5 or higher. So, betting a team lined at -3 +100 is the same as taking -144, while taking a team at -3.5 +100 is the same as taking the favorite on the money line at -178.

To help you along, try to answer the following two questions.

Question 1) What's a better bet: Taking a favorite at -2 -110, or taking the favorite at -135 on the money line?

Answer: You take 2% (the percentage of the time that the game will land on exactly 1), 1% (the game will land on exactly 2 about 2% of the time, but since the game is lined at 2 you only get half of that), and 2.5% (the juice at -110). Adding 2+1+2.5 together, we get 5.5%. Add 5.5% to 50%, and we get 55.5%. 55.5% is the same as -125 on the money line, so you'd rather take -2 -110 (which is the same as -125) than -135.

Question 2) What's a better bet: A dog at +3 -120, or +125 on the money line?

Answer: For dogs you simply subtract from 50 as opposed to add. So, starting with 50, you subtract 2 (the percentage of the time that the favorite will win by exactly 1), then 2 again (the percentage of the time that the favorite will win by exactly 2), then 5 (you take half of the three). This gives you a total of nine. Subtract 9% from 50%, which gives you 41%, and then add 5% (for the juice at -120). Your total now is 46%. The equivalent money line to 46% is +117, so you'd rather take the +125 as opposed to the +3 -120

Still confused? If so, then I owe it to you to give a quick plug the best sports betting book ever printed-'Sharp Sports Betting' by Stanford Wong. This book contains a chart which compares every point spread of -3.5 or less to the equivalent money line, which means you won't have to do the math every time you're looking to compare a money line bet to a point spread bet (the chart is on page 242 of the book). If you don't own a copy yet, it's now time to pick one up. At $19.95 it's an absolute must-have for anyone serious about betting sports.

4) Shop around!

This should be self explanatory. The fact is, all successful bettors have multiple 'outs'. They don't just open an account at one book and pray that that book will have the best line on a game that interests them. You should have multiple accounts opened up, and some money left over that you can toss into a book should you find a juicy line. Remember: What we're looking to do is accumulate small edges; picking up a nickel here, a dime there. To do this you need to be able to bet into the best lines possible.

5) T-T-T Tease me!!

One of the best kept secrets in sports betting is the fact that you can profitably bet two-team six point teasers when you can capture both the three and the seven. So, if a book has the dog on one game lined at +2.5, and the favorite on another game lined at -8, you can tease the +2.5 up to +8.5, and the -8 down to -2, and have a profitable bet. Remember: you have to capture the entire 3 and the entire 7 for this to be profitable. If, in this same case, the favorite was -9, you couldn't bet this teaser since you'd only be able to tease the favorite down to -3.

The nice thing about these teasers is that you don't have to worry about who's home and who's away. Home favorites, home dogs, road favorites, road dogs-they will all work here (caution: recent findings suggest that road dogs are the weakest of these four subsets, and may not make for profitable teaser bets. When possible, avoid using a road dog as one of your legs). Just be sure that you're not paying more than -110 for this bet. Also, many books offer 'open teasers', whereby you can take on team on a teaser and take the second team at a later date. So, even if you can't find two teams to profitably tease, take the one team and fill it your card with the second team the next time you find a team that fits the requirement.

6) Stay away from totals!

If there's someone out there who can consistently beat totals then I haven't found him yet. In any case, totals are always a bad bet for those of us who don't spend 60 hrs. a week crunching data. I don't know why people insist on betting totals, although I think it often has something to do with bettors thinking they 'know something' that the lines maker doesn't.

An example of this would be the weather. For example, let's say it's December, and the Bills are hosting the Jets. On the Wednesday before the game the Weather Channel announces that it looks like Buffalo is going to get some heavy snow on Sunday morning. The typical square now goes to his book and pounds the under, thinking that this nasty weather will keep scoring down.

There are two problems with this. First, the front may never materialize. And second, bad weather doesn't keep scoring down in the NFL. Don't believe me? Then ask John Elway, or Fran Tarkenton, about how badly the foul weather in their respective cities hindered their ability to put up decent career numbers. The fact is, when the weather gets bad the offense has an advantage, since they know where they're headed on the field. It's the defense's job to react-and that's bitch when you don't have your footing. Say you're playing corner for the Packers, it's raining cats and dogs at Lambeau, and you're matched up on Randy Moss. You want to try and react to the cuts of a guy with 4.4 speed when you can hardly stand up without slipping?

Stay away from totals, folks. Trust me.

7) Don't pay for picks!

Unless you're going to be betting $1000 or more per game, it's probably not worth it to kick out $500 or more for a handicapper's picks. If you're betting $500 a game, say, and your handicapper expect to have 120 picks over the course of the season, a 54% 'capper can expect to go around 65 and 55 against the spread. Figure in the juice on the 55 losers and you're probably looking at a profit of around 5 units or so. This equals a profit of around $2000 bucks after you figure in the cost of the picks. This isn't bad, but it's tough to justify spending 20% of your profit on picks-especially when you can make plenty of advantage bets by doing your homework and shopping around.

That said, I'll recommend a couple sites to check out for those of you who are looking for a sports service. Steve Fezzik, one of the handicappers at www.lasvegasadvisor.com , is one who I would be comfortable endorsing. Same with the handicappers at www.sharpsportsbetting.com . Also, I usually check out what Brian has to say at www.sportswagers.ca . Brian and I have some different ideas about poker, to be sure, but I respect his NFL opinions.

8) Get Creative!

This is probably the most important section of this article. Once you understand how to compare point spreads to money lines you'll find all kinds of opportunities to bet middles, reverse middles, and other odd combo bets for profit.

One thing to remember is that the '3' in the NFL is worth about 20 cents. That is, if you can take a team at +3 +100 at one book, and +3.5 -120 at another book, these bets have roughly the same expectation. With this in mind, you can profitably middle the 3 so long as the difference between your bets is less than 20 cents. Example: book A has the favorite at -3 -110, and another book has the dog on the same game at +3.5 -110. Since the difference between these lines is 20 cents, you can't bet both sides here and expect to show a proft. However, if the line at book B was +3.5 -105 (or lower), you could bet both sides and expect a positive long term return of about 1.5% (obviously the farther away you get from a 20 cent disparity between the two lines, the higher your expected return).

You can also find opportunities to scalp a money line against a point spread. For instance: say you find a game where the money line on the favorite is -150 at book 'A', while at book 'B' you can get the dog for +3.5 -110. If you do the math, you find that +3.5 -110 is the same as +160 on the money line. Anytime the odds you're receiving on the dog are larger than the odds you're laying on the favorite you have a profitable scalping opportunity. In this case, assuming you have no opinion on the game, you expect the favorite to win by exactly 3 or less about 14% of the time. This means that 50% the favorite will win by 4 or more; when this happens you lose 10$ (the juice on the bet on the dog). 36% of the time you expect the dog to win outright; when this happens you'll lose $50, since you win $100 on your dog bet but lose $150 on the money line bet on the favorite. But 14% of the time you'll win both bets; i.e, the dog will cover AND the favorite will win outright. When this happens you win $200. Doing the math, we see that you expect to win $200 14% of the time, for a net win of $2800, lose $50 36% of the time for a loss of $1800, and lose $10 50% of the time for a loss of $500. This leaves you with a win of 2800- (1800+500), or $500, which equals an advantage of about 2.27% for every dollar wagered.

Here's another example of a creative wager. A week ago or so Steve Fezzik posted a combo bet on the Denver Broncos (you can find Fezzik's insights on the forums at www.lasvegasadvisor.com). One book offered the Broncos to win the AFC at +1800, while another book offered the Broncos not to win the Super Bowl at -2100. So, he placed a $100 bet on the Bronco's to win the AFC, and a 2100$ bet on the Broncos not to win the Super Bowl (note: Steve Fezzik's actually wager amounts were probably much higher than this; we're just using $100 to make the point). If the Broncos failed to make the playoffs, or otherwise failed to win the AFC championship, then Fezzik would break even. If, however, the Broncos win the AFC, he's now in an interesting spot. He's already won $1800 by virtue of the fact that the Broncos won the AFC, but now he's got to worry about them winning the Super Bowl-a disaster that would cost him his $2100 bet, and result in a $300 loss for the combo. To avoid this, he can now bet the money line on the Broncos in the Superbowl. If the Bronco's were -200 in the Super Bowl, for example, he could bet $1000 on them to win. If they do win he ends up ahead 200 bucks; 1800 (because they won the AFC) +500 (because they won the Super Bowl) -2100 (because they won the Super Bowl). If they lose, he's out the $1000 bet on the Super Bowl, but he still wins the $1800 for the Broncos winning the conference plus the $100 dollars he won for them not winning the Super Bowl. In any case, the entire bet is a free roll.

These little numbers-1.5% here, 3% there-certainly don't sound like much, but remember: When you're betting a scalp or a middle your exposure is virtually nil. As a result you can put a much higher percentage of your bankroll into play, since you're only nominally worried about going broke. Taking a bet with an expectation of 1.5% isn't very sexy, but when you can bet five times more on that bet than you would on a 'straight bet' your bankroll can fatten at an alarming rate. And that, my friends, is what the game is all about.

Are you an NFL junkie? Do you like betting on your favorite team? Then you should try NFL betting online. There are numerous sports books available online for you to choose from accepting wagers from all over the world. Just like many other ventures the advent of the internet has led to an explosion in the both the popularity and the numbers of online betting sites available to choose from.

Using an internet based sports book service offers those of us who love football much more than your local bookie is able to provide you. Some of the most important benefits are not having to wait on busy signals and not having to be concerned about collecting your money. Another great thing about betting online is that many of the sports books actually give you bonuses for opening an account plus player rewards offers.

Even more surprising and amazing is that the sports betting companies online actually give you fair money lines. So contrary to the local sharks who will try to screw you over because you are placing a bet on the local favorite or maybe because the are the only bookie available in your area, the online sports betting sites will give you better lines. The thing about online betting sites is that they have lots of competition so they know they have to be competitive to keep your business.

If you are really interested to know where exactly online you can bet on your favorite football team, consider the following sports books.

VIP Sports has long been considered as a major online sports betting portal by many sports betting enthusiasts. Maybe what sets VIP Sports apart from its counterparts is the fact that they are financially solid and is undoubtedly going to pay your winnings upon request. Aside from that, this sports betting site has a huge player base and is well-managed.

Today, VIP Sports offer signup bonus for their bettors. They also process deposits by way of allowing their customers to employ their checking accounts if they wish to consider instant transfer of funds.

Pinnacle Sportsbook is one of the best online sports betting books available on the internet. Here, you will find quick Neteller payouts and a long history online which has been appreciated by scores of players. Also, this NFL online sports betting site has a rock-solid reputation and they offer reduced juice betting options, making them as one of the worth visiting sports books to visit online.

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There is such thing as easy money. That is true; it applies as well in gambling, particularly sports betting. That is why people looking for sports betting tips to help them win their wagers.
Sports betting has its own class of difficulty. It is not like poker or casino, in which players judge when they are playing in accordance to the situation, if you bet on sports you judge before you play. To be successful in sports betting, there are plenty to be done.

Following are two sports betting tips, which might help you boost your winning rate.

* Money management
* Develop A Niche

Money management is a very important thing when you are betting on sports. Never bet more than you can afford to lose is the key to the money management. Set a limit to your budget that you want to bet, never exceed the limit. Even though you have set the limit, that does not mean you are laying all of your eggs in one basket. Divide it into several parts, Sports betting is not a sprint, try not to chase your losses.

Develop a niche means that you have to choose which sport to bet at. If you are a bettor who is betting only for fun, you do not need this. If you want to be a professional bettor, you surely need this. When you have concentrated into one sport, you do more focus into related sport research. Doing so might increase your winning rate significantly.

When it comes to being a professional sports bettors, many aspects shall not be denied in order to increase your winning rate, and certainly to win.

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As a MLB baseball fan and sports bettor, you probably know that one key element in
any baseball game is the pitching. A solid pitcher can completely shutdown an
opposing side. What happens when you have two very good pitchers going at it?
Usually the game is low scoring—no matter how good the hitters are. Just the
opposite can happen when to sub-par pitchers take the mound. Knowing how to
properly evaluate pitching is key to winning your baseball bets. However, evaluating
can be a complicated task. Just what should we pay attention to? That’s the purpose
of this article. We will discus what’s important to look at and use the past
performance of real pitchers to illustrate these points. It’s time to play ball.

ERA

The most common mistake for those wagering on MLB baseball has to be simply
looking at the pitcher’s ERA. The ERA is important, but you have to dig a little
deeper to get the full story. Let’s take a look at Chicago White Sox pitcher Freddy
Garcia. Let’s imagine that it’s late in the season and he’s on the mound with his
3.87 ERA. It would be easy to look at that and decide that he’s a good pitcher.
However, looking at his stats deeper tells a tale of two pitchers—home and away.
Let’s compare.

1. At home, Garcia has a 4-5 record. On the road he is 10-3.

2. At home, his ERA is 4.38. On the road his ERA is 3.40.

3. At home he gave up 17 home runs 38 walks. On the road he gave up 9 home
runs and 22 walks.

4. He pitched 10 more innings on the road.

So what does this data tell you? For one, it tells you that Freddy Garcia is not a good
pitcher at home. By looking deeper into the ERA and where the game is being
played, you can get a better picture of just who’s taking the mound for a game.

Team Performance

Another area you want to look at is team performance, which looks at how well the
pitcher has performed against the team. While you can look at history, it’s best to
look at the current season and only pull in history if there are no current season
performances. The reason is simple; teams change, at least a little, each year. Let’s
keep looking at Freddy Garcia to see why team performance is so important. Take a
look at a couple teams Garcia pitched against in 2005 and the outcome.

1. Garcia pitched four games against Detroit and had a 2.61 ERA.

2. Garcia pitched four games against Cleveland and had a 2.63 ERA.

3. Garcia pitched three games against Seattle and had an 8.35 ERA.

4. Garcia pitched two games against Oakland and had a 3.46 ERA.

By looking at team performance, we can see that Garcia’s outcome fluctuated and
there are certain teams that he just does not do well against and others he
dominates. We just looked at ERA here, but you can drill down further and look at
overall pitching performance such as: hits, walks, home runs, innings pitched and
so forth.

Inning Count

The last area of our discussion involves inning count. It’s vital that you know how
deep, on average, the pitcher goes into games. If the pitcher is known for 5-6
inning outings, then you know the bullpen will be a major factor in the game. If this
is the case and the team’s bullpen is suspect, you have to devalue the starting
pitcher some. If you have a pitcher that normally works 7-8 innings and the team
has a dominant closer and possibly a very good setup man, then you can focus
more on the starting pitcher. Here’s an example list of pitchers and their 2005
averages.

1. Freddy Garcia 7 innings.

2. Randy Johnson 6 2/3 innings.

3. Pedro Martinez 7 innings.

4. Jose Contrares 6 13/ innings.

5. Livian Hernandez 7 innings.

In the case of Randy Johnson and Jose Contrares, we would have to discount their
ability slightly if their team’s bullpen was not solid. Getting 7 innings of work out of
a starting pitcher is good and about the average.

So the next time you go to bet baseball, look at who is pitching and do a little
evaluating. It will pay off in the end.

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Do you bet on MLB baseball? If not, you should. There are countless profitable betting opportunities every MLB baseball season. Whether you are already betting on MLB baseball or thinking about starting, this article will give you three solid baseball betting tips. These baseball betting tips will help you refine your selection process so you are getting better value for your money and winning more in the long run.

Baseball Betting Tip One: Don't bet on heavy favorites

As a generally rule, I don't bet on any MLB team that's around -160 or higher. The principle is a sound one. The more money you lay—without getting anything in return—the more you have to win to just break even. Let's look at an example using a heavy favorite of -200. You are laying $2 to win $1. Right away we can see that we must pick winners 66% of the time just to break even.

This is ridiculous. Take the best team in baseball and look at their win percentage. It's generally around 60-62%. Sure, the team playing a heavy favorite is probably not that good, but baseball is a funny game. Rather than getting suckered in, look for other betting options or steer clear of heavy favorites.

Baseball Betting Tip Two: If you must bet a heavy favorite, do it on the run line.

The run line is baseball is a spread and money line combination. In this case, you will be laying 1.5 runs—so your team must win by 2 or more—but you will be knocking down the money laid. Many good teams will beat poor teams by two or more. By betting them on the run line, you can knock off significant money. Perhaps the team you were going to wager on that was over the mark set in tip number one is now down to -120.

Baseball Betting Tip Three: Don't bet on road teams going for the sweep

Yes, road teams do sweep, but it's very hard. Looking over recent history, a home team only gets swept about 10% of the time. Good ones get swept even less. You could say that a secondary tip would be to bet on home teams trying to avoid the sweep. That's up to you. My main point is to simply walk away from games where you like the visitor, but that team is going for the sweep.

There are your three great MLB baseball betting tips. Good Luck!

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If you want to make real money in sports betting, then you want to engage in basketball betting. It's one of the biggest sports—betting wise—for a reason. The basketball season is coming up soon and I wanted to create a simple guide to understanding the basketball lines. If have never bet on basketball or have, but are slightly confused, this is the article for you. Let's get into it.

Spreads

The majority of people bet on basketball via the spread. The spread is the number of points that the team must win by or can lose by. It's not there to predict winners and losers, but to divide betting. Here's an example of a typical NBA line.

LA Lakers – 6
New York Knicks +6

In the NBA line above, the New York Knicks are at home and getting 6 points. If you place a wager on the Knicks, you will win if the Knicks win the game or if they lose by 6 or less. The LA Lakers are the visiting team and the favorite in our hypothetical game. If you bet on the LA Lakers, you only win if the Lakers beat the Knicks by at least 6 points.

There's also another type of spread in basketball called the totals line. The totals line puts up a number that both teams combined will score. As a basketball bettor, you must decide if the total of all the points in the game will be under or over the number. Here's an example of a total's line.

LA Lakers vs. NY Knicks Over 178 (-110)
LA Lakers vs. NY Knicks Under 178 (+105)

In our example, the total for the game is 178. If you think both teams will score more than 178 points combined, you will bet the over. If not, bet the under. In the parenthesis is the money line for each selection. We'll talk about this in the next section. The totals line is simple to grasp.

Money Line

The money line in basketball is used much less than the spreads. When you bet on the money line, you are betting a team to win outright (no spread). Sounds great right? Well, it's not so easy. Sure, picking the winner might be, but there's a cost. In our example above, the Lakers were a 6 point favorite. On the money line they might be listed as -400. That means you need to wager $4 for each $1 you want to win. Here's a quick example of a game on the money line.

LA Lakers -400
NY Knicks +350

In our example, you would win $3.50 for each $1.00 bet on the Knicks provided they won the game outright. Remember this simple rule: The plus sign means the number is the amount you win for each $1.00 wagered. The minus sign is how much you must wager to win $1.00. You are now ready to tackle basketball lines. Good luck.

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It seems like a dream or a fantasy. Can you really bet on both sides of a sports
contest and come out a winner? How about a big winner? The answer is a surprising
yes. It’s something that is not talked about too much, but it exists. This article is
going to explain how you can win at sports betting by betting both sides of an NBA
game. The concept is very easy to follow and you will be able to go out and use it in
just a minute or two from now. Are you ready? Here we go.

Line Movements & the Basics

The concept is based off the fact that the NBA line normally moves up and/or down
with each NBA game. For example, a team might open as a 2 point favorite and
close as a 2 point favorite, but during the day, the team might have been up to a 5
point favorite. The totals line in the NBA is always full of movement. A game might
open at 192 and close at 196. Line movements on the totals line of 3-4 points are a
normal occurrence.

To perform this sports betting maneuver, you are going to bet each side at different
times. Not all games are viable options for this strategy, because not all games have
movements. As mentioned before, the totals line moves for most games. There are
four main rules to follow:

1. If you bet the favorite, you need to bet the underdog when the line goes up.

2. If you bet the underdog, you need to bet the favorite when the line goes down.

3. If you bet the over, you need to bet the under when the line goes up.

4. If you bet the under, you need to bet the over when the line goes down.

Now that we have the general rules and concepts in place, let’s look at an actual
NBA totals example.

Betting Example

Our example consists of the Miami Heat, who is a 3 point favorite, playing at home
against the N.Y. Knicks. The over/under for the game is at 168 and the line just
opened. You will be making $110 wagers—since it’s easy, mathematically, to see
how things work.

You make an initial bet on the OVER 168 for the game for $110. Through
monitoring the line off and on during the day, you notice the line has moved to 173.
You decide that a 5 point swing is good enough and make a $110 on the UNDER of
173. You now have two tickets in play and here are the possible outcomes.

1. The game can end at 169 or 174. This is a push and you only lose your vig on
one ticket.

2. The game can end at/over 174 or at/under 167. This is a push and you only
lose your vig on one ticket.

3. The game can end at 168 or 173. You pushed one ticket and won the other.
You have won $90. ($100 minus vig)

4. The game can end at 169,170,171 or 172. You win both tickets and receive
$190.

In our example, the worst that can happen is you lose $10. The best-case scenario
has you winning $190, which is 19 times your risk.

The Catch

So what’s the catch? You need to know which way the line is going to move and if it
will move at all. Let’s say you bet that OVER 168 and the line did not move. You are
now playing the OVER 168. If you like this bet, there’s no problem at all. However, if
you bet just hoping it would move, you now have a bet you don’t care for.

Next time you make a NBA basketball bet, pay attention to the line moves. You just
might find a way to capitalize on it without risking much.

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Be Money Smart

There is probably no bigger mistake in sports betting than gambling more money than you have or can afford. Money management is such an important aspect of the industry but is often one of the most neglected. Set aside a certain amount of money that is for sports betting only and stick to that amount. Remember: in this business, any given team can lose on any given night. Resist the urge to bet more money than you can afford.

Do Some Research

One of the best and most profitable ways to win money through sports betting is to establish a niche and follow it. For example, unlike sports book operators and handicappers, you have the time and the resources to closely follow a smaller or minor conference. Once you become an expert on it, you will have a great chance of beating the house. There are a number of ways to do your homework, most notably the internet which has a wealth of information.

Gambling while Intoxicated

In short, don't do it. The casinos in Vegas supply free drinks to their gambling patrons for a reason. Alcohol will cloud your cognitive capabilities and judgment which can lead to rash and poor decisions. You need to keep a clear head if you want be a successful bettor.

Play Underdogs on Their Home Turf

There is something to be said for the disadvantaged team playing on their home turf. Whether inspired by the cheering fans or being at home, underdogs often provide a great bet that can have big payout.

Picks

Many reputable pro betting sites offer users free college basketball picks, NFL picks, and baseball picks. Often, the top handicappers will give some of their best picks in hopes that you will use them. Use these picks to get started.

Betting at the Right Time

Depending on who you are betting for, there are advantages to betting during certain times. Those who bet underdogs tend to do so early, and favorites are picked later. If you like an underdog team, get your bet in as late as you can, when there is heavy action on the favorite teams. If you pick a favorite, do so early when the pros are putting down big money on the point. Of course, not all games work according to this, but it is generally a good rule of thumb to go by.

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There a few types of bettors as described below.Which do you fall under?

Bettor A: The Ego Bettor - This bettor is primarily motivated by the feeling of superiority that he gets from outsmarting and beating his bookie. Money is secondary.

Bettor B: The Gambler - This bettor is motivated by the rush he gets from risk. He is addicted to gambling and if he was not betting on sports then he would be gambling some other way.

Bettor C: The Strategist - This bettor truly enjoys the strategizing of the game. They typically play other games such as chess and bet more for the process then the outcome.

Bettor D: The Social Bettor - This bettor bets because it is very popular right now and everyone seems to be doing it. They are primarily motivated by wanting to fit in with their peers.

Bettor E: The Money Bettor aka The Bookie Spanker - This bettor is in it purely for the money. He has put his ego in check and bets only to make a profit and is willing to do whatever it takes to do so.

The truth is that the overwhelming majority of bettors fall into one of the first 4 categories.And while bettors in group A, B, C, or D may enjoy limited success in live games betting they will never be the ones to consistently dominate the online sports betting scene.

Internet aka online sports betting and casino gambling has become the fastest growing segment of web-based commerce today
with revenue growth increasing from $1.5 billion in 2000 to $4.6 billion in 2002. Projected growth estimates indicate revenues will climb to $10.7 billion by 2005. The amount has already swelled to 15 billion. You have to get a slice of this pie. There are strategies around and many claim themselves to be '100%' guaranteed tried and tested. But I can really lay claim to a program called spankyoubookie due to the fact that tried it out myself and personally made over $2000 USD at the first month of using 3 of the taught methods.

Nothing spectacular but well, at least it worked!

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How far have you implemented the sports betting tips I suggested? Significant tips like money management and research before placing your wager shall not be abandoned. The next tip is about bet at the right time; I remembered that I nudged about this in my second part of sports betting tips.

There is a direct correlation between betting at the right time and doing research. Well, actually betting at the right time is a result after doing a research. Anticipating and analyzing line movement is something professional bettors always do. The numbers move according to the betting pattern of the bettors, which means the line changes depending on the wagers bettors have put. Sometimes it is better to bet early as soon as the line is out, sometimes waiting for the line to move into your advantage before betting could be a right choice. Whenever you are going to bet, it is always the best move to shop for numbers at that time.

Betting on underdogs, for instance, is best placed as late as possible. The reason is simple because the line has moved as a result from the betting activities from fans and squares. They tend to place their bet early.

But if you are going with favorite, it is best to place your bet as early as possible before the lines move against you.

Betting at the right time may not be very influential on only a few games, either you win or lose. You would, however, see the difference when you calculate your overall loses and wins. The fundamental of this tip is similar to the second tip, which is shopping for numbers.

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The Fifth lesson of Sports Betting Tips continues at Betting on Home Dog and don't be a Fan. I can tell that you are laughing over this or you are only wondering. Read on to comprehend how this can improve your betting success rate.

Don't be a fan. Why? Can you recall the sports betting tip I wrote in part 3? Never gamble under influence. Being a fan of a team, on which you want to bet, is prohibited, furthermore if you have just started your sports betting journey. Professional bettors, or should I say experts, are different in many ways, one of them is that they could separate "being a fan of a team or player" and "betting on the game where their favorite team or player play". They won't let their emotional judge their betting picks just because they are supporting particular team or player. Could you do that? It is easier said than done.

Betting on Home dog is one special way to have a high winning ratio. In football, American football, rugby, basket ball, base ball, etc, Home team is likely to be more motivated to win the game. They do what it takes to win, because they do not want to disappoint the home crowd. Mentality of a team/player could as well be one aspect that helps a team at home to win. Remember, this will not guarantee your win if you never do your homework. Analyzing the statistic and history might enhance your confidence in your decision to pick home dog.

Remember to distinguish between being a fan and being a bettor if you want to bet on the game, in which your favorite team or player involves. Betting on home dog would be lot easier if you have studied all the necessary data, you should make profit in the long run if you do it correctly.

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I would like to know how much you want to be a professional bettor. Let's not say professional but a serious bettor who wants to make a living from gambling. If you are only betting for fun, then this step can be very tough and pretty much will drain all the time you have. The fourth Sports betting tips is "do your homework". Are you wondering? Read on.

Homework, in this case, covers a lot of things. Shopping for numbers is one of them. Betting Research is another type of homework. It is important to do research to ensure and maintain your winning rate. There are many other important factors when it comes to beating the books. Researching things like: statistics, line moves, game analysis, team trends, situational trends, historical angles, valuable lines, inflated numbers on public teams, etc. is not to be ignored whatsoever.

In horse betting, for instance, the important aspects are the post position, race track conditions, history and condition of the horse, history of the jockey, history of the trainer, and more.

Having done betting research does not necessarily mean that you will definitely win, but on thing is absolutely true is that you boost your winning rate. If betting research does not guarantee a win, why should you waste your time doing research? To answer this question I refer to a long term profit. Boosting your winning rate does not only apply to every game you bet on. But it as well applies to overall of your betting in one year or half a year, or any given time span.

When you are getting used to doing research and analyzing all data during the research, you are just in the way to making profit in the next year or whenever you are ready because it would be much easier for you in the process of picking the bet with high chance of winning.

Talk to you soon in the next part of Sports Betting Tips. The next part would be Bet on Home Underdog and don't be a fan. Stay tuned and do not forget to do the research as much as it is required before you bet.

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This may come as a surprise and might seem trivial to you or the most ridiculous sports betting tip ever. I, however, think that this could a decisive aspect of winning or losing sometimes. Never do the betting under influence is the next tip I am going to share with you. How could this be a sports betting tip? You ask.

Let's journey to Las Vegas or Monaco, perhaps Macao. Do you know why they supply their customers with free drinks, I mean alcoholic drinks? They are not as generous as you think; they are not offering a good customer service as well. They have another purpose namely to cloud you judgment.

When you have too many drinks, it is in your best interest that you better stay away from your computer, in your case it could be a temptation to betting. I believe you do not drink at home while you are going to do online betting. Influence in this case is not limited at that level. Influence means a factor that makes you judge emotionally. A quarrel with your spouse, girl/boyfriend, parents, or anyone can as well be considered as under influence. It depends on how good you take it; retuning to a calm state of mind.

Stay away from betting for your favorite team. As a fanatic fan you are likely to support your team by betting on it. Well, if you could really separate two things, being a fan and being a bettor, then you may allow yourself to bet on the games, in which your favorite team plays.

This seems easy to achieve, but when you are under influence, sometimes you don't really know what you are actually doing. Now you are wondering how could this be one of sports betting tips after reading it, aren't you?

I bet you'll nod your head when you refreshed your past and identified the lost you had because of betting under influence. Anyway, stay tuned for my next part, in which I will cover about research before betting.

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In my previous article of Sports betting tips, I'd discussed about how important money management is. The second most important aspect to online sports betting is shopping for numbers. This aspect of the betting process is a very important one that many newbies and even veterans overlook. Just imagine when you are shopping for a laptop. You don't just pay the price the seller is asking before you compare it in other shop, make sense? The same thing applies here in online sports betting.

It is also important that you have the ability to play where the numbers are most advantageous, which means that you must have funds in your account where the best lines are offered at the time you need to be betting. Having some cushion in a service such as Neteller can also precipitate this flexibility. That ability comes from how experienced you are in this field, it grows as you go.

It sometimes surprises me when a bettor, in golf for example, says getting -125 is not that much better than getting -135, that it is not worth shopping for, it only wastes your time. I try to point out that that is either $10 less risked, for a $100 bettor, or over $7 more won for the same risk amount. What could have been the difference if you do 20 bets? When bet after bet is piled up, you would see how that is worth shopping for.

How many sports books do you have to sign up for? I would say the magic number lies between three to five sports books. Having too many accounts at too many bookies does not help much. Even worse, it could get you into trouble. You'll have to balance funds among multiple sports books. You must keep this factor in mind when deciding how many accounts to use and how heavily to fund them.

Anticipating and analyzing line movement is something professional bettors always do. The numbers move according to the betting pattern of the bettors, which means the line changes depending on the wagers bettors have put. Sometimes it is better to bet early as soon as the line is out, sometimes waiting for the line to move into your advantage before betting could be a right choice. Whenever you are going to bet, it is always the best move to shop for numbers at that time.

Remember that the difference between a point or two is usually the difference between a win or a loss. Stay tuned to the next part of 7 Sports Betting Tips to increase your winning rate.

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How many times have you lost your money to a sportsbook because you bet in the way that you are not supposed to do. Bettors, who always beat the house, have their own system to follow. Let me share some of the tips that I implement during my sports betting journey.

The first as well as the most important tip is the money management, I bet you are nodding your head agreeing to the money management part because you often read about this when you were looking for sports betting tips on the net. The golden rule of sports betting, as it as well applies in general gambling, is to never bet more than you can afford to lose. How important is money management?

It is significant, with money management you know how much you will bet before you decide which team to pick. Bettors without money management decide how much they will bet when they pick their team, which means you are a rational bettor and they are in the other hand emotional bettor in the way of how much money they bet.

A simple thing to money management is to have your certain bankroll; the key here is that you must decide in advance what portion of your bankroll you can afford to lose. When you do manage your money you are as well managing your risk while betting.

Beginners are advised to do flat betting, which is of course in the frame of your system you have made in your money management. Doing flat betting will not be profitable if you do it in the wrong way. Let say you want to play three games, on the first game you bet £200 to win £150. On the second and third game, however, you bet £100 to win £75. You lost the first game and won the second and the third game.

You bet £400 in total, you won £150 and lost £200, which means you lost £50 overall. You could have won if you bet the same amount of money on every game.

This is one of the money management examples for you to consider. Never forget the golden rule: never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stay tuned to the next part of 7 Sports Betting Tips to increase your winning rate.

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Sports betting is a popular pursuit for many people all over the world. However, most of them lose in the long run but it doesn't have to be this way. In this article, I'll cover X tips so you can get one over the bookies.

Never Act Emotionally

The moment that you act emotionally is the moment you lose. Remember to always use logic over emotions. Always have a reason for entering or leaving a bet. Is that "feeling" you are getting a result of your emotions or taking in all the factors? Only you can answer this question.

Betting Comes Down To Probabilities

Some people think that betting on an odds-on favourite means that they can't lose. In fact, this only means that your chances of winning are greater than 50/50. But if you bet this way all the time without thinking about it, then there will be occasions where you lose and the bookie wins. And overall, in the long run, you will lose money.

For example, let's say that it is late in a sports even and the odds you have are 1.1. This implies that there is a 91% chance of winning according to the odds offered by someone else or a bookie. You might think this is great but it is only great if the bookie is underestimating the chances of winning. The bookie thinks that 9% of the time you will lose. However, if you choose your bets carefully and lose only 1% of the time then you will emerge with a long term profit.

But if you lose frequently, maybe 20% of the time, then you have not carefully selected your bets.

Always Know Your Market

Learn as much about your market as you can. If you want to bet on NBA then learn something about NBA basketball before you start to bet. You don't need to know everything but you do need to learn the basics before you start to bet.

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The real difference between a losing and a winning sports bettor is not always having more winners instead of losers. In fact when you are dealing with sports betting you need to understand and apply solid money management.

I think you realized that every time you looked for sports betting tips, the first thing you noticed was money management. That proves how important this really is.
The first thing a beginner should do in money management is by setting a limit to the betting budget. The second thing is do a flat betting. Before that, it is important to note that betting all the money in one game is pretty much a suicide. By doing this, you are more likely to chase your losses.

Doing Flat betting is advised because this ensures your winning when you pick more winners than losers. Let's journey to an example to explain it more detail.

In the first game, you think Team A is going to win the game so you bet $300 to win $285. You decide to bet on two more games but you do not fell as confident on Team B and C, so you bet $150 to win $135 on both. You end up winning two out of three, but it is the two games where you placed smaller bets. You have risked $600 on those three games although you won two out of three, you ended up with only $570, so you have lost $30 overall.

What if you bet all three games with the same amount of money? You could have made a profit. Unless you stick to flat betting, you are not guaranteed a profit even if you pick more winners than losers.

Does that make sense? Gambling might not be as easy as you think, if you really bet in order to win not just for fun, money management is not to be left out. When you are doing it for fun, losing or winning does not seem to be so important.

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Budget Your Money

Participating in any sports betting forum without budgeting how much you really have to spend can be a risky and you may end up spending more than you have. To avoid such situations, you need to do some quick money management and figure out how much you can afford. Set that amount aside exclusively for sports betting and stick to it! Avoid going over that amount or you run the risk of betting more than you can afford to lose.

The Home Team

Some bets are obvious, especially when it comes to betting against underdogs; however, keep in mind that placing your bets on the underdog team when they are on their home turf can turn out to be a great bet. This is not only because they have the home turf advantage and the support of their true fans, but also because you stand to gain a lot more by betting on them. Remember, this may not be a wise bet if the underdogs are playing an undefeated team, or if they have a particularly bad record.

The Odds

Make sure you do your homework before placing your bets; research the sports books you usually bet at because some have better odds on parlays and teasers. When you are betting big money, the difference in odds can directly translate into a huge difference in your payout.

Betting Under the Influence

Is it any wonder why all the gambling casinos in Las Vegas serve drinks free? Stay away from the betting window when you've had too much to drink; otherwise your judgment is blurred and you will not be able to make rational decisions.

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Ever since the inception of the first online sports betting sites in 1995 people have been flocking in droves to try their luck at picking winners at their favorite sporting events. Online sports betting has been growing in popularity for a number of reasons that make it so different from standard casino style betting.

To start with, it is done from the comfort of your own home, so there are no parking problems, lines, booze being pushed at you or any of the other problems and inconveniences that come with casino style gambling. Also, placing bets on a wider variety of games and events is so much quicker and easier online then in a standard casino.

However; for the beginner it can be somewhat confusing, due in part to the large number of websites that offer online sports betting that are available on the Internet. What is most important for the beginner is that they find a reputable online casino to gamble at, as there are quite a few less then reputable outfits that are out there to cheat you.

There are a number of websites that will refer you to online gambling centers but most of them do their referring to gambling centers that pay them a kickback commission. Fortunately there is a vast selection of legitimate online gaming sites to choose from and most of them will allow you a free trial period.

Still one more thing to try, is to visit chat rooms that have gambling or sports betting related topics. It is there that you will meet like minded people that can pass on some of what they have learned. Remember, that you must be 18 to gamble online and if you are new to it, it is important to learn how to set limits. Also, remember to keep your bets small at first until you get the hang of it.

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